An upswing in economic risks due to rising trade tensions and debt levels has prompted the International Monetary Fund(IMF) to cut its forecast for world growth for this year and next.<\/p>\n
With trade growth set to slow sharply amid a trade war between the United States and China, the IMF cut its outlook for global GDP by two-tenths to 3.7 percent for 2018 and 2019, according to the quarterly World Economic Outlook Report issued Monday.<\/p>\n
The revised estimates include a worsening outlook for developing economies this year and next compared to the July report, as well as downgrades for the US and China in 2019.<\/p>\n
The IMF warns that risks highlighted in previous reports \u201chave become more pronounced or have partially materialised\u201d in the real world.<\/p>\n
The dominant US economy has been shielded from the ill effects so far due to the stimulus provided through tax cuts and spending policies, but that will wear off by 2020.<\/p>\n
Still, the trade disputes sparked by President Donald Trump that have led to tit-for-tat exchanges of tariffs among major trading partners are affecting China, other Asian economies and more vulnerable countries like Argentina and Turkey, along with Brazil.<\/p>\n
\u201cTrade policy reflects politics and politics remains unsettled in several countries, posing further risks,\u201d IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld told a press briefing in Bali, where the fund kicks off its annual meetings this week.<\/p>\n
\u201cDespite the possibility of less political space in some countries\u2026 making consensus on sound policies often harder to reach, there won\u2019t be a better time than now for further action.\u201d<\/p>\n
Growth estimates for the euro area and Britain also was revised down.<\/p>\n
The report warned that growth \u201cmay have peaked in some major economies.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cDownside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded,\u201d the IMF said.<\/p>\n
Rising trade tensions are a key challenge to the world economy as \u201cprotectionist rhetoric increasingly turned into action.\u201d<\/p>\n
That includes President Donald Trump\u2019s imposition of tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods, as well as on aluminium, steel and other products worldwide.<\/p>\n
The IMF warned the uncertainty caused by the trade disputes \u201ccould lead firms to postpone or forgo capital spending and hence slow down growth in investment and demand.\u201d<\/p>\n
And if it continues, the \u201cescalation of trade tensions to an intensity that carries systemic risk is a distinct possibility without policy cooperation.\u201d<\/p>\n
Global trade is projected to expand by 4.2 percent this year, six tenths less than expected in July and nearly a full point lower than the forecast in April. For next year, trade is seen growing just four percent, a half point less than the prior forecast.<\/p>\n
When the world\u2019s two biggest economies \u2014 the US and China \u2014 are \u201cat odds\u201d, that is going to create \u201ca situation where everyone is going to suffer\u201d, Obstfeld said.<\/p>\n
\u201cGrowth is now much more uneven\u201d than six months ago, he told reporters.<\/p>\n
But the outgoing chief economist \u2014 who retires from the Fund later this year \u2014 added that it was a \u201cmixed picture\u201d with some Latin American and African nations getting growth forecast upgrades.<\/p>\n