{"id":8922,"date":"2013-08-24T07:40:19","date_gmt":"2013-08-24T07:40:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/disnaija.com\/nigerian-newspapers\/pdms-emergence-in-whose-interest\/"},"modified":"2013-08-24T07:40:19","modified_gmt":"2013-08-24T07:40:19","slug":"pdms-emergence-in-whose-interest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/disnaija.com\/pdms-emergence-in-whose-interest\/","title":{"rendered":"PDM\u2019s emergence: In whose interest?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The registration of the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), without any iota of doubt, has changed the political calculation toward the 2015 general elections.<\/p>\n

Prior to the registration of the party, many must have concluded that 2015 elections would be a straight fight between the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), which is the product of the merger of major opposition parties – Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP).<\/p>\n

That thought must have, however, been proved wrong by the entrance of PDM. Speaking shortly after his party\u2019s registration, PDM\u2019s interim national chairman, Bashir Yusuf, said that with the registration of PDM, politics in Nigeria will not remain the same again. His words: \u201cThe registration of PDM is a good development. Politics in Nigeria will never be the same again.<\/p>\n

PDM is the real alternative Nigerians have been waiting for because I have no doubt in my mind that it will change the present decadent order and try to fix Nigeria for all of us, not for sections, religion or tribes but for all of us.\u201d<\/p>\n

Before it was registered as a politi-cal party, PDM was a respected political group in Nigeria. Founded by one time Chief of Staff, Supreme Headquarters, the late General Shehu Musa Yar\u2019Adua, it was instrumental to the emergence of late Bashorun MKO Abiola as the Social Democratic Party (SDP) flag bearer for the June 12, 1993 presidential election. Despite the annulment of the June 12 election, PDM became too visible for any student of politics and power game not to note.<\/p>\n

A great blow was dealt on the group when its leader, Shehu Yar\u2019Adua was sentenced to life imprisonment by a military tribunal in 1995. He later died in captivity on December 8, 1997. After Yar\u2019Adua\u2019s death, PDM leadership fell on the shoulder of one of his lieutenant, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. The political structure later grew in strength and most of the leading members of PDM were the founding members of the PDP in 1998 in preparation for the present Fourth Republic.<\/p>\n

Prior to the 1999 general election, former Head of State, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, was backed by PDM as PDP flagbearer. The backing was given as a compensation to the Yoruba over the death of Bashorun MKO Abiola.<\/p>\n

Indeed PDM was reputed to have provided the platform upon which Obasanjo rode to power in May 29, 1999 with Atiku Abubakar as his running mate. The group later became a strong caucus within the PDP. PDM also provided a solid platform for Obasanjo and Atiku to return for a second term in 2003. In the middle of their second term in office, Obasanjo and Atiku parted ways, particularly over Abubakar\u2019s quest to succeed his boss.<\/p>\n

The tussles between the two gladiators divided PDM members into two camps. Majority of the founding members of PDM were loyal to Obasanjo and remained in PDP while some defected to Action Congress (AC) with Abubakar. However, despite flying the AC presidential flag he came a distant third in the election.<\/p>\n

During the 2007 elections, Obasanjo against all odds, influenced the emergence of Shehu Yar\u2019Adua\u2019s younger brother, Alhaji Umaru Yar\u2019adua, not only as PDP presidential candidate but also as eventual winner of the general election, thus succeeding him. Yar\u2019Adua later died in office in May 5, 2010 and his deputy, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, took over.<\/p>\n

Jonathan was later elected as president during the 2011 general elections. Though Abubakar returned to PDP after losing the presidential election to Yar\u2019Adua, he was not able to return with all his loyalists as many of them refused to leave AC, which later metamorphosed into Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and now, to APC.<\/p>\n

The former vice president\u2019s quest to run for presidency in 2011 on the platform of PDP was also scuttled as he lost the party ticket to the incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan, during PDP primary. To many analysts, the drama that surrounded the emergence of late Umaru Yar\u2019Adua ahead of Abubakar and the ex-vice president\u2019s inability to pick the PDP ticket during the party\u2019s 2011 presidential primary created a great division within the PDP. Considering the political undertone that Jonathan might run for a second term in 2015, there have been several plots by some Northern leaders to stop Jonathan.<\/p>\n

The Southern leaders, especially the people of the South-South, where the incumbent president hails from are also not leaving any stone unturned in their efforts to make Jonathan retain the seat. Against the background of the spirited moves of the North to ensure that one of their own get is the occupant of the presidential villa in 2015, many are of the view that the registration of PDM may not be far from the desperation of the North.<\/p>\n

Despite the denial of involvement in the registration of the PDM by Abubabar and some of the founding members of party, there is a strong belief in some quarters that some of them cannot be, indeed, dissociated from the party.<\/p>\n

Saturday Mirror gathered that the chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees (BoT), Chief Tony Anenih, and other PDP gladiators such as Alhaji Lawal Kaita and Ambassador Yahaya Kwande were among delegates from all the 36 states of the federation and Abuja that attended the August 29, 2012 rejuvenation meeting of the PDM at the Shehu Yar\u2019Adua Centre in Abuja. During the meeting Atiku, through Kaita, apologised for his absence and pledged his unalloyed commitment to the group.<\/p>\n

Therefore, with the presence of some of the PDP gladiators at the event and the party being registered almost a year after the meeting many people believe strongly that PDP cannot distance itself from PDM.<\/p>\n

According to some school of thoughts, PDM is out to divide ranks. It is believed that many founding fathers of PDM who were presently in PDP may retrace their step back to PDM if their expectations are not met during the party\u2019s primary.<\/p>\n

Irrespective of the way many people may look at it, PDM\u2019s emergence will likely affect PDP and APC\u2019s chances in 2015. Considering the North alleged stiff opposition to Jonathan\u2019s return, political analysts are of the view that the emergence of the PDM is a deliberate plan to frustrate PDP and Jonathan\u2019s ambition to get re-elected.<\/p>\n

The political calculation in some quarter is that since APC seems to have zoned its presidential candidate to the North, PDM may play a destructive or supportive role for APC in ensuring that a Northerner emerges as next president or allows the status quo to remain if President Jonathan runs in the election.<\/p>\n

Since APC is more popular in the South, especially in South-West, it is believed that PDM\u2019s support, in conjunction with the popularity of the former Head of State, General Mohammadu Buhari, and other APC Northern chieftains, will be an added advantage for the APC.<\/p>\n

Such a support from PDM may pave way for anybody that APC presents as its presidential flagbearer in 2015. But if both PDM and APC decide to present separate presidential candidates from the North in 2015, then PDP would benefit from the division and gain more strength. On the other hand some are of the view that PDM is PDP and that the party may have been founded to boost PDP\u2019s chances and weaken APC\u2019s chance in 2015 election.<\/p>\n

The calculation may afterall be that PDM will throw its weight behind the PDP and campaign vigorously for anybody that the party presents as its presidential candidate, irrespective of where the person hails from, to weaken APC.<\/p>\n

Despite Abubakar distancing himself from the PDM and insisting that he remains a PDP member, some are of the view that the former vice president may use the PDM platform to seek for the office of the president if he intends to run for the presidency in 2015. But since there is no permanent friend or enemy in politics, some are of the view that with the popularity of the APC, the registration of the PDM may be a ploy between President Jonathan and Atiku to weaken the newly registered APC, especially in the North.<\/p>\n

Irrespective of the way it is viewed, there is no way the former vice president can be dissociated from the PDM. Speaking on the registration of PDM and its effect on Nigeria politics, renowned constitutional lawyer, Prof. Itse Sagay (SAN) said that the emergence of the PDM was of paramount significance because it could change the dynamics of politics in Nigeria, especially in the Northern region of the country as the 2015 general elections draw closer. Sagay also noted that PDM\u2019s emergence would lead to splitting of votes in the region as no single party will amass majority votes during the 2015 polls.<\/p>\n

He stressed that any political party the PDM merges with between the PDP or APC would garner the highest votes in the Northern region. His words: \u201cPDM is going to cause splitting of votes in the North. In other words, the Northern votes will be scattered independently. Also, if the PDM collaborates with any of these two, then that group will dominate. If it decides to cooperate with APC, then APC will dominate the PDP.<\/p>\n

And if it cooperates with the PDP, which I doubt, then PDP will triumph. I think that is the main impact the PDM is going to have. Any party it cooperates with will control northern votes.\u201d While Sagay believes that PDM could change the dynamics of politics, the Special Adviser to President Jonathan on Inter-party Relations, Senator Ben Obi, is of the view that neither Jonathan nor the PDP was greatly worried about the seeming threat of PDM and APC in 2015.<\/p>\n

\u201cPDM don\u2019t portend any danger. It can even be used to enhance the chances of PDP. I don\u2019t see any governor or even Atiku abandoning PDP for now. Time will prove me right. You don\u2019t jump from certainty into uncertainty in politics,\u201d he said. From all indcations, it is certain that events will continue to unfold in months to come. And until all the cards are lay bare on the table, many may not be able to say what some key politicians and groups have up their sleeves.<\/p>\n

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Posted in Nigerian Newspapers. <\/a>A DisNaija.Com<\/a> network.<\/p>\n

Source: National Mirror Newspaper<\/p>\n

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