The increasing possibility of President Goodluck Jonathan emerging as the consensus candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in the 2015 presidential election is creating tension in the North, albeit the nation. OBIORA IFOH takes a look at this development and to whose interest is this option.

President Goodluck Jonathan has promised Nigerians that he would make known his decision concerning his re-election bid in 2015 early next year (2014). When the time comes, it is expected that he will confirm the expectations of most Nigerians that he will contest the presidential election for the second time.

Of course, the question is no longer whether he is qualified to contest the election, but how he will emerge as the flag bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. Opinions are bound to differ as expected, both within the party and amongst Nigerians, particularly, political watchers.

To some, the party’s laws which support a validly convened convention where all aspirants must be made to face party members and jostle for the ticket, must be adhered strictly to in order to achieve a popular and well accepted candidate.

But another school of thought has also argued that the practice in modern democracy is such that a sitting president is granted the right of first refusal before the contest is thrown open to all aspirants. Incidentally, these arguments have polarised the nation, with majority of political leaders in the North insisting that the contest must be thrown open, while most other Nigerians have also argued that since the constitution of Nigeria supports a second term in office, the President should be solely allowed to go for the second tenure in order to complete some of his projects.

But if President Jonathan contests and wins the 2015 election, the North will once more be sidelined as it would amount to the fact that since this dispensation, it has tasted power for only three years out of possible twenty years by 2019. And so the arguments and debates ensue.

PDP’s position on consensus

The National Chairman of the PDP, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, recently clarified the position of the party on the contentious consensus option, insisting that who becomes the PDP presidential candidate will be decided by the delegates to the presidential primaries and the candidate would thereafter face the Nigerian electorate to decide who becomes the president.

Tukur, who was reacting to statements credited to Adamawa State governor, Sule Lamido, that the PDP ticket won’t guarantee Jonathan’s second term, said that “it was wrong for anyone to start insinuating whether President Jonathan will emerge victorious as the presidential candidate of the PDP, when the time for the presidential primaries is yet to come.”

Speaking through his Special Assistant (Media), Oliver Okpala, Tukur said: “As at today, the PDP is yet to conduct its presidential primary, let alone someone emerging as the presidential candidate.

The emergence of the PDP presidential candidate will be decided by the delegates to the presidential primaries, thereafter, the party’s presidential candidate will face the Nigerian electorate to decide who becomes the President. Not until that is done, the PDP as a political party will be working to ensure that the- would be presidential candidate wins the presidential election.”

Argument for consensus candidacy

Recall that the right of first refusal for the President in 2015 was first canvassed by the Chairman of the party’s Board of Trustees, BoT, Chief Tony Anenih last May at a meeting of PDP South-South chieftains in Asaba, Delta State, where he said: “I do not see anything wrong, if the PDP considers automatic tickets for the President and its governors who have performed well and are seeking for a second term,” Ever since he muted that idea, several political leaders have latched on it to make comments either for or against it.

Only recently, a former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Mohammed Abba-Gana incurred the wrath of some Northern leaders when he advocated that giving Jonathan another four years would not hurt the North in any way, insisting that if the North had produced between eight and nine former heads of state and presidents, with poverty and underdevelopment as a proofs, then, four more years of Jonathan would not kill them.

Abba Gana noted: “Some people in the North want Jonathan to come back and some don’t want him to return. But allowing Jonathan another four years will not take away anything from us.

We’ve had between eight and nine heads of government. But what do we have to show for it? Poverty and underdevelopment! So, if their person did not bring development to them, another four years of Jonathan will not cause any havoc. The North needs the four years to plan, learn, relate better with other parts of the country, work harder, talk less and groom a leader that will unite the nation and tackle the challenges facing the country.”

Another school of thought has also tinkered with conducting a referendum to ascertain if Nigerians are satisfied with Jonathan’s performance in office so far as to warrant giving him an automatic ticket for another term. In the new move being pushed by some party leaders, President Jonathan and first term governors desiring a second term would be considered for a referendum on their achievements in the first term before a party convention.

As part of the referendum, delegates to the party convention would be asked to affirm a yea or nay on the president’s performance, upon which he would be adopted as the party’s consensus candidate.

Should the President fail to get a majority in the referendum, a second convention would be called within one month in which all interested presidential aspirants in the party would be subjected to a contest that would also include the President as a candidate.

Meanwhile, elder statesman and Ijaw leader, Chief Edwin Clark and some South- South leaders have advanced quantum achievements by Jonathan since he came to power as why he should go for a second term without necessarily been forced to a contest at the PDP primaries.

Besides the achievements in various sectors, they said the President has carried on as a detribalised Nigerian without subverting the Nigerian Constitution for any sectional interest.

He said: “The South-South geo-political zone of which Delta State is a part; holds President Jonathan, who is our illustrious son, in highest esteem. We are very proud of him because of his great accomplishments in all facets of human, economic, political and social development. He enjoys our support because of the uncommon transformation which ordinary masses, who are not blind-folded by partisan politics, regional or tribal considerations are experiencing under his Presidency.

“These Nigerians are not interested in the politics of where the President comes from, or a president based on ethnic, regional or religious background. The President they want is a leader, who will give them food on their table, good education to prepare them for leadership and revival of our decaying infrastructures to sustain our harmony as a nation. This is what President Jonathan is doing since becoming President.

“The South-South will support President Jonathan for 2015 because as a minority he is detribalised and has carried on as president without favoritism or subverting the Nigerian constitution for any sectional interest. President Jonathan sees every Nigerian irrespective of where he comes from, religious background, economic or political base as one united entity.

The president today is a unity bridge that binds the South and the North together.”

Argument against consensus candidacy

Among those against the automatic ticket for Jonathan is the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, who only recently said he remained opposed to the PDP’s policy of “consensus arrangement” and “adoption” rather than transparent elections to produce candidates for all elective offices, including the presidency.

His words: “My position remains that as far as the PDP Constitution is concerned, any attempt to change the party’s rule to favour the President as a sole candidate in the event of his willingness to re-contest is unconstitutional.

The contest should be open to all desiring to pursue an ambition on the platform of the PDP.” While acknowledging that President Jonathan is entitled to seek the party’s ticket in 2015, the former vice president, however, insisted that President Jonathan should submit himself to a transparent and fair process just like any other party member and by foreclosing free and fair process of selecting its presidential candidate, Atiku said the PDP might be sending the wrong message to Nigerians about its commitment to conduct free and fair elections for the entire country A former military administrator, who is also a top member in the Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF, told National Mirror that a summit of the Northern leaders will soon be convened in Kaduna to take a stand on the 2015 presidential contest, particularly as it concerns the North’s quest for the presidency in the coming general elections.

According to him, “the meeting will also address the Northern question of marginalisation, under-development, insecurity. It will also table the grievances of the five Northern governors, particularly, the 2015 question.

All political leaders will be expected to be present at the meeting as the future of the North will be addressed. It will also afford us the opportunity to seek congruous voice on national issues so as to avoid leaders clashing on issues that ought to be beneficial to all and sundry.”

Similarly, former Senate President, Ken Nnamani, who spoke in Abuja at a oneday National Citizen Summit on Electoral Reform organised by the International Republican Institute, IRI, and the Alliance for Credible Elections, ACE, Nigeria, said democracy is an excellent system which allows each person to have a role in determining the leader. He explained: “So, the concept of consensus is an issue, it is not totally democratic.

A situation where there are many interested candidates, then you substitute the ballot box for what you call consensus and all kind of words to subvert the ballot box. It does not help. We have the freedom to make a choice of who becomes our leader, who becomes our president. That right is one of the key elements of dividends of democracy.”

The Secretary General of the Northern Elders’ Forum, NEF, Professor Ango Abdullahi and a Second Republic lawmaker, Dr. Junaid Mohammed, dismissed suggestions for a second term for Jonathan as illconceived, pointing out that the President did not deserve it as he has failed to tackle the myriad of challenges confronting the nation, thereby showing that he lacks the capacity to move Nigeria forward.

They said another four years for Jonathan would push the country into the abyss and Nigerians cannot afford to take such a risk, pointing out that Abba Gana was not qualified to speak for the North, going by his antecedents.

However, the NEF insists that it is morally wrong for President Jonathan to re-contest in 2015. NEF spokesman, Prof. Ango Abdullahi, said the North would search for a consensus presidential candidate just as it did prior to the 2011 presidential election to vie with Jonathan.

Prof. Abdullahi, particularly, insisted that it is morally wrong for President Jonathan to re-contest in 2015 even though he agreed that Jonathan, as a Nigerian, has the constitutional right to re-contest, he said moral obligation should make him forgo that right in compliance with the PDP zoning formula that ceded the presidency to the North.

He said: “What I am referring to here is a situation of his party, the PDP, which adopted certain rules or guidelines. Even if they are not legal, they are still traditional practices of the party, which ordinarily, as humans, we should be able to respect. If you have a memorandum of understanding, it may be outside the law, but it still applies to you. You have that moral obligation to respect it.”

A Northern consensus candidate to the rescue

There is also another school of thought that thinks that the problem of the North has been its inability to come together to chose one amongst the Northern candidates as a consensus candidate to face either President Jonathan or whosoever will emerge from the South.

At the convention that produced the PDP candidate in the 2011 election, the North was divided amongst itself and though, former Vice President Atiku was clearly ahead of the rest aspirants, the inability of the region to queue behind him cost the zone the presidency.

This circumstance is about to play out again as some power-brokers are already looking forward to a Northern candidate who may be put up in another party to challenge Jonathan, should the PDP refuse to throw the contest open. Few weeks ago, a group of politicians and other concerned Northerners converged on Kaduna and commenced the search for a suitable consensus candidate that would ensure the return of power to the North through election.

The group, which met under the aegis of Concerned Arewa Patriots, CAP, also called on all Northerners to unite and support the move to ensure that the North gains full political recognition.

Speaking in an interview, the convener and pioneer national leader of the group, Maiyaki Idris, said although President Jonathan could contest for the presidency, the incumbency factor should not discourage the North from fielding a consensus candidate for the position, saying that the North had suffered a lot under the present dispensation.

Idris said: “To be able to appreciate the path to lead to our goals of unity and sustainable development, we have set out machinery on course to fish out the very best of our own, to seek for, and pursue the prime position of presidency come 2015, in order to broker the peace and security of the nation which had been in crisis for some time now.

We make this humble appeal as an initiative for all agencies of the North to begin to consider, for us to ensure total cooperation and support for our common consensus candidate come 2015.”

Prof. Abdulahi while speaking on how the North would arrive at a consensus candidate for the presidency in 2015, given the rancour and the subsequent defeat of former Vice-President Abubakar, who was picked by the zone in the run up to the last presidential election, said there was no cause for alarm. He explained that part of the problem they encountered in 2011 was insufficient time, aided by “selfish interest, divide and rule and corruption,” adding that “but now that we have two years ahead of us, we are not leaving anything to chance.”

The ACF, however, stated that it was too early to crown North’s consensus candidate, since all the Northern aspirants had yet to declare their intention to run.

The spokesman for the forum, Anthony Sani, said: “I think it is too early to start talking politics to that level at this time, precisely because such talks will not only heat up the polity, but distract us from governance. It is premature to talk of which candidate is qualified to be President and deserving of support, since we do not know all the aspirants yet. But when the time comes, nobody will tell us what to do.”

Recall that only recently, a former Head of State and presidential candidate of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, in the 2011 general election, Major- General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd.) and the National Leader of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, Senator Bola Tinubu, reportedly held a private meeting with the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwa to persuade him to join the mega party.

But the NEF said that although it had not decided on a consensus Northern candidate for the presidency in 2015, Tambuwal’s “youthfulness and performance” as the Speaker made him an attractive option in the region’s bid to reclaim the presidency.

The spokesman for the forum, Dr. Paul Unongo, in an interview said Tambuwal would get the support of many Nigerians, especially Northerners, should he emerge the presidential candidate of any political party.

Similarly, the National President, Arewa Youths Consultative Forum, AYCF, Yerima Shettimah, said Tambuwal could win the hearts of youths in the North but only if he was not sponsored by “Northern politicians who contributed to the woes of the region.”

Shettimah said, “We saw Jonathan as a young man and we felt he came from a poor background like some of us. We felt that he was going to come up with our aspirations. At the end of the day, what happened?

We want a young leader but not one that is being used by older politicians.” As the game plan continues to unfold, the battle ahead for the 2015 presidential election is definitely going to be titanic, as each contender continues to strategise to out-do one another. But the question is: will the interest of the Nigerian masses be put into consideration?

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Posted in Nigerian Newspapers. A DisNaija.Com network.

Source: National Mirror Newspaper

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